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Updates after 8 months of LCHF

As shown in the plot above, I’ve been doing this practice and lifestyle for about eight months. During the past few days, I’ve attempted to update and enhance my representation and visualization of body weight data.

In the plot, the red vertical bars represent individual daily measurements. The solid black line is a 15-day centered moving average (15d-CMA), and the dashed black lines show the 15d-CMA +/- 1 standard deviation (SD). The SD is computed over the same 15 day window of the moving average itself, and provides an estimate of measurement error.

During the four month period from Mar 1 – Jun 30, we can see a net reduction in weight of approximately 30 lbs, corresponding to a sustained average decrease of about 2 lbs per week. After this point we reach a fairly stable and sustainable plateau around 182 lbs, which is right where I want to be.

The average uncertainty in the dependent variable (measured weight) over the interval is +/- 1.5 lbs. This describes the average channel width between the dashed lines in the plot. This provides an estimate of how accurate a given daily measurement is expected to be. In other words, a short term trend of +/- a couple of pounds is just as likely to be “noise” as “signal”. Therefore, there’s minimal value in taking short term fluctuations seriously.

Lessons learned:

  • Protein leverage appears to work well in appetite suppression and making daily fasting easier. This means aiming for 25+% of daily calories from protein. Supplementation (whey protein) has helped me in reaching this target.
  • OMAD works well for me as long as I eat enough food at that one meal (e.g. at least 2000+ calories, 100+ g protein).
  • The starting point suggests that my stable weight when I eat an ad-libitum standard American diet is around 215-220 lbs. Sustainable and stable weight for me following a LCHF diet, including intermittent fasting,  looks to be in the range of 180 lbs.

I’ll keep observing the data and seeing what changes in the weeks and months ahead, but I’m pleased with the current status of things.

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